Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 86738.941750 91534.968992 96331.580748 101485.427800 106863.091860 112305.445038 118226.243339
2025-11-16 78991.857896 86318.911277 93852.134492 102166.134377 111074.284250 120322.423807 130639.103490
2025-11-23 72950.577480 81950.493064 91407.157928 102064.074322 113718.437963 126055.386942 140081.185336
2025-11-30 69300.783464 79653.776503 90729.185402 103425.241224 117541.832383 132721.134503 150241.760528
2025-12-07 66073.279911 77490.552340 89898.210633 104334.468541 120617.814719 138364.110446 159114.196398
2025-12-14 62770.858074 74991.175477 88463.876043 104352.338791 122507.147426 142533.296068 166220.836285
2025-12-21 60052.823799 72973.673355 87407.598799 104640.242999 124563.174487 146780.007870 173332.032298
2025-12-28 58379.317678 72042.561836 87488.806597 106135.263509 127920.216965 152450.056314 182036.784526
2026-01-04 56656.802349 70948.812166 87289.325097 107222.215462 130740.683678 157463.372557 189971.582175
2026-01-11 54874.537686 69690.318301 86813.771537 107910.463731 133035.853370 161829.767560 197140.549237
2026-01-18 52975.115420 68203.757864 85989.703229 108113.835931 134700.567249 165419.761549 203381.693560
2026-01-25 51266.412741 66874.747637 85287.753660 108402.198871 136416.724852 169037.257346 209641.289926
2026-02-01 49479.157828 65400.222009 84372.008987 108406.472063 137784.251854 172255.957047 215472.047712
2026-02-08 48394.654162 64755.460153 84433.854703 109574.636596 140545.445390 177143.188950 223325.340719
2026-02-15 46794.686849 63403.906056 83571.925094 109559.966618 141828.408308 180231.388345 229011.051148
2026-02-22 46008.433993 63049.472362 83920.267940 111022.030777 144912.543403 185502.888781 237363.852666
2026-03-01 45039.502993 62422.304577 83894.015574 111989.687828 147369.461856 190008.997169 244802.160700
2026-03-08 43688.868655 61255.394186 83144.239328 112009.475731 148617.428375 193017.322203 250405.013751
2026-03-15 42538.776359 60311.643102 82644.140620 112314.753510 150200.157323 196427.132203 256506.859293
2026-03-22 42013.058350 60168.566675 83154.819280 113898.972391 153394.074290 201845.026314 265125.208477
2026-03-29 41329.404304 59790.293686 83340.712586 115050.611366 156033.303045 206578.514941 272916.144209
2026-04-05 40500.947940 59190.565505 83214.732590 115779.753013 158122.494115 210623.857220 279863.173226
2026-04-12 39498.260380 58324.960398 82712.738815 115995.199534 159535.121504 213810.817836 285738.827141